Volcanos

The Zeta's take on how the volcanism will affect us

The Electronic Volcano is a window into the world of information on
active volcanoes. From here you can find many types of materials on
active volcanoes worldwide, such as maps, photographs and full texts
of dissertations and a few elusive documents. The Electronic Volcano
will guide you to resources in libraries or resources on other information servers.     http://www.dartmouth.edu/~volcano/

Dec 30th
ROME: The Stromboli volcano, on the island of the same name off the southern tip of Italy, has begun erupting after nearly two decades of silence but does not pose a danger to inhabited areas, residents said on Sunday. The volcano - one of the most active in Europe and a well-frequented tourist attraction - started erupting at around 6:30 pm on Saturday, they said. A substantial flow of lava poured down the side of the volcano into the sea, they said, adding that the eruption was visible from neighbouring islands.

Dec 29th - eruption now past 60 days of continuous flow of lava
Mt Etna Update (Italy) 37.73 N, 15.00 E, summit elevation 3350 m, Shield volcano Monday 28th October 2002 The eruption continues at Mt Etna. During the night incandescent material was visible in 3 new craters which have formed at 2700 m elevation, under the Torre del Filosofo (between SE crater and Montagnola). Catania airport has been closed due to ashfall. Seismic activity is still significant with a jolt of magnitude of 3.8 on the scale of Richter recorded with 0302 hr. More on Mt Etna Volcano... Location Map...

CATANIA, Sicily (AP) - Mount Etna spewed columns of ash that blackened skies as far away as Africa, and rivers of steaming lava streamed down its slopes, setting a pine forest on fire and leading officials to close schools and an
airport near the volcano.

The air was thick and dirty over eastern Sicily, and on Malta, an island 125
miles south of the volcano, ash blackened parked cars and dirtied laundry
hanging from balconies. Lava flowed down both sides of the mountain, but
experts said Monday that villages were in no immediate danger.

From as deep as three miles inside its bowels, Etna coughed up flaming stone
that soared more than 300 feet into the air.

Flights were diverted to Palermo, on Sicily's northwest side, because ash
hampered vision and left runways slippery at Catania's airport, the only
large airport in eastern Sicily.

Satellite photos showed the ash was carried as far away as Libya in northern
Africa, 350 miles south of Mount Etna.

The lava flowed more than halfway down the sides of the 11,000-foot
mountain, the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology said.

Sicily asked the Italian government to declare a state of emergency, and
Italian state TV said soldiers might be sent in to join civil defense
workers on the slopes.

Crews with bulldozers worked to divert lava from Linguaglossa, a town on the
mountain's north side.

The town's mayor said there was no danger to residents, but he ordered
schools closed.

Townspeople prayed before a statue of Padre Pio, an Italian saint, pleading
for the lava flow to stop.

Many of Catania's 350,000 residents carried umbrellas against the black ash.
Authorities banned motorcycles because of the slippery, ash-covered roads,
and Catanians were allowed to ride buses for free, a step to encourage
people to leave their cars at home.

In 1669, a huge volcanic eruption destroyed the city, on Sicily's eastern
coast. Its last major eruption was in 1992.

On Monday, fires raged in a pine forest near Piano Provenzana on the
northern side of Mount Etna. Firefighters using helicopters and planes tried
to douse the flames. Some of the trees caught fire because of the extreme
heat even before the lava reached them.

On the southern side, as many as 15 cracks opened up, feeding one stream of
lava.

One stream of lava rolled quickly down the northeastern side of the mountain
and another one on the southern side, said Antonino Mostaccio of the
Volcanology Institute.

On Sunday, shortly after the volcano roared into action, lava toppled power
lines and destroyed ski lift pylons and a ski school building.

The lava was just over a mile away from the Piano Vetore astrophysics
observatory, Mostaccio said. The eruption was expected to last a few more
days.

Mt Etna Volcano Erupts (Italy) 37.73 N, 15.00 E, summit elevation 3350 m, Shield volcano Monday 28th October 2002 Rivers of boiling lava poured down Mount Etna on Sunday, ploughing over ski-lifts and surrounding a mountain restaurant after a series of earthquakes aggravated Europe's most active volcano. Pine trees caught fire almost instantly as the heat of the lava engulfed them and the stench of sulphur filled the air as cracks opened up in the ground, witnesses said. Civil protection officials in Catania, which sits in Etna's shadow, called a crisis meeting and were preparing to send water-carrying planes into the skies to try to bring the fires under control. The eruptions began in the early hours of Sunday, shortly after a series of small earthquakes shook the eastern edge of Sicily and parts of mainland Italy. Italy's National Institute of Geophysics and Vulcanology said more than 100 tremors measuring 1.1 to 3.5 on the Richter scale struck the region, with the epicentre just 1.5 km south-east of the centre of Etna's crater. The volcano, Europe's highest at 3,350 metres, pumped out huge dark clouds of ash and spurted streams of lava 200 metres into the air. More than 10 hours after the first eruptions, an immense mushroom-shaped cloud still hung over the mountain top, and in Catania, city workers were sweeping thick layers of ash from the streets. Italy's ANSA news agency reported three tongues of lava snaking down the mountain from fissures at a height of around 2,300 to 2,500 metres. Cracks were also found at about 1,500 metres, but no lava activity was reported at that altitude. The heaviest flow was descending on Piano Provenzana, a popular area for tourists to take mountain walks in summer and for skiing and other activities in the winter. The flow pushed over ski-lift pylons, knocked down power lines and swallowed a ski-school hut before surrounding an empty mountain restaurant. Officials said no one was injured. Etna is almost constantly rumbling, but has not produced any serious activity since a series of eruptions in July and August 2001, which experts described as one of the most erratic and complex displays in 300 years. (Times of India) More on Mt Etna Volcano... Location Map...

http://www.volcanolive.com/volcanolive.html 

August 19th
Suwanose-jima Volcano (Japan) 29.53 N, 129.72 E, summit elevation 799 m, stratovolcano

One of Japan's most active volcanoes erupted twice Monday, spewing forth ash and smoke on a small, sparsely populated island but causing no injuries or damage, officials said. The 2,640-foot Suwanose-jima volcano began erupting around midnight and again at 6:30 a.m., said volcano specialist Tomoyuki Kanno of the Meteorological Agency. The volcano, about 740 miles southwest of Tokyo, is one of Japan's most active and has erupted every year since 1956, he said. None of the 64 people on the island of Suwanose were hurt, and there were no reports of damage. The Meteorological Agency warned there is likely to be more activity, but has no plans to order an evacuation. (AP) More on Suwanose-jima volcano...  http://www.volcanolive.com/suwanose-jima.html 

http://www.volcanolive.com/volcanolive.html 

ALEUTIAN Islands  Aug 18th 2002
Another volcanic eruption...  Shishaldin Volcano (Alaska) 54.75 N, 163.97 W, summit elevation 2857 m, stratovolcano

Shishaldin volcano erupted on 17th August. An ash plume to 10,500 ftextended 60 nautical miles SE. (Anchorage VAAC) More on Shishaldin Volcano...http://www.volcanolive.com/shishaldin.html  The Shishaldon volcano is currently at the ORANGE alert level.

Aug 6th - Pago Volcano in New Guinea blows ash 33,000 feet

Pago Volcano (Papua New Guinea) 5.58 S, 150.52 E, summit elevation 742 m, Caldera Tuesday 6th August 2002

Report from Rabaul Volcano Observatory at 2230 hr on 6th August of ash column extending up to 33000 ft (10,000 meters) in height above the volcano. Report from Air Niugini at 05/2030 hr grey ash plume 6,000-8,000 ft thick extending 80nm long WNW to 25,000 ft. Pago Volcano (Papua New Guinea) 5.58 S, 150.52 E, summit elevation 742 m, Caldera Tuesday 6th August 2002

Eruptions continue at Pago Volcano in Papua New Guinea. An Air Niugini flight observed an ash cloud to 4000ft reported moving to North West 10nm wide, 20 nm long. Ash was observed on 4th August at 2105 hr. (Darwin VAAC

Two Volcanoes Erupt in Congo
Sunday 28th July 2002

Volcanic eruptions and other activity continued Saturday on mounts Nyamuragira and Nyiragongo, in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, but still posed no immediate danger to the nearby city of Goma. An aerial survey over the volcanoes showed lava formation within Nyamuragira was flowing north and south but that there were no more eruptions within its crater. However, there are eruptions within Nyiragongo, but they pose no danger. Lava from Thursday's eruption of Nyamuragira is expected to cause considerable damage to the Virunga National Park, nearby, which is devoid of a human population. A team of volcanologists from the 11-member observatory - a branch of the Department of Geophysics/Lwiro, Bukavu - is due fly to Nyiragongo on Sunday to monitor the mountain that last erupted on 17 January, spewing lava over Goma and forcing thousands of people to flee. (IRINnews)

"Nyamuragira is spectacular. Everyone should see something like this once in their life," said Dario Tedesco, a volcano consultant to the United Nations, after flying over both peaks in a helicopter. http://www.volcanolive.com/volcanolive.html

KRAKATAU - (06o06.0'S 105o25.2'E), 813 m, INDONESIA

As of the 22nd of July, the Volcanological Society of Indonesia (VSI) has reported that the seismograph is now working again since the 13 September 2001. The seismograph was down due to a power supply problem. On their next update to SWVRC, VSI shall report the latest data on volcano Krakatau. SWVRC suspects that Krakatau has already erupted by this time but we seek confirmation on this issue.

The colour code at Krakatau is currently at ORANGE ALERT LEVEL 2. ERUPTION Pro 10.3 is currently forecasting volcano Krakatau to erupt in 2002 with a + or - 97.27% probability.   http://www.swvrc.org/restless.htm 

MEXICO - Wednesday May 22, 2002 4:20 AM
Volcano: COLIMA    Volcano In Mexico Spits Lava
The Guardian
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-1752285,00.html 
COLIMA, Mexico (AP) - Mexico's most active volcano spit out bits of
lava and ash Tuesday as scientists predicted a larger explosion in
coming days.About 300 people have been evacuated from five small hamlets near the volcano's crater but a few families have refused to leave. Police are
patrolling the empty streets.

The 12,533-foot ``Volcano of Fire'' registered fewer tremors after
Tuesday's activity, but University of Colima scientists said there still was the risk of an eruption somewhere in severity between those of 1999 and 1913.

The 1999 eruptions sent glowing rock three miles down the volcano's slopes and sent a plume of ash up more than five miles. The 1913 explosion created a crater 1,650 feet deep, blasted fast-moving flows of hot ash down the volcano's slopes and rained ash on Guadalajara 75 miles to the north.

On Saturday, 70 residents were evacuated from the Jalisco state towns of Juan Barragan, El Agostadero, El Borbollon and Los Machos located 10 miles from the crater. Neighboring Colima state evacuated Yerbabuena, a hamlet of 200 people located near the peak.

The volcano, 300 miles west of Mexico City, is on the border of the two states. In February, dozens of residents were evacuated from both states after hot rocks began rolling down the volcano's slopes. No one was injured.

Vulcanologists consider the Colima volcano one of the most active and potentially most destructive of Mexico's volcanoes. It has erupted dozens of times since its first recorded eruption in 1560.

As of the 17th of May, the Universidad de Colima has reported that
the associated seismic activity to the volcano continues in the same
level that the last days, registering events explosive type jointly
with landslides. The lava front that lowers by the Southwestern
flank, on the high parts of the ravine El Cordobán, has reached a
distance of 750 meters. The incandescent rock landslides appear by
the South sectors, This and West, being this last one, on the Ravine
of the Fire, most active with reaches between two and three
kilometers from the top. On the other hand, the lava front that
advances towards the side This, in direction of the ravines Beltra'n-
Durazno and the Cafecito, presents/displays sporadic landslides. The
images made with the infra-red chamber have shown incandescence
during the last hours.

The Colima volcanic complex is the most prominent volcanic centre of
the western Mexican Volcanic Belt. It consists of two southward-
facing volcanoes, Nevado de Colima (the 4,320 m high point of the
complex) on the N and the historically active Volcán de Colima on the
S. Volcán de Colima (also known as Volcán Fuego) is a youthful
stratovolcano constructed within a 5-km-wide caldera, breached to the
S, that has been the source of large debris avalanches. Major slope
failures have occurred repetitively from both the Nevado and Fuego
cones, and have produced a thick apron of debris-avalanche deposits
on three sides of the complex. Frequent historical eruptions have
mostly originated from Colima's summit crater. The current eruptive
episode began in November 1998 and has included summit lava dome
growth to feed three SW-flank lava flows, pyroclastic flows, and
intermittent explosive activity.

The Colima volcano is currently at the YELLOW alert level.

"Live-Cam" link to Colima
http://www.ucol.mx/volcan/envivo_naranjal.html


KAMCHATKA (Russia)
Volcano: KARYMSKY
As of the 17th of May, the Kamchatkan Volcanic Eruptions Response
Team (KVERT) reported that seismic activity was above background
levels. The local shallow seismic events are occurring roughly at the
rate from about 10 to 15 events per hour, and the rate of occurrence
has slightly increased in the middle of the week. The character of
the seismicity indicated that weak ash-gas explosions, gas blow-outs
and avalanches possibly occurred. Visual observation of the volcano
from a helicopter on May 10, revealed a new ~100 m-height cone inside
the active crater and lava flow on the south-southwest slope of the
volcano.

Thermal anomalies of 2-4 pixels in size with the maximum band 3
temperature near sensor saturation( ~50oC) within a background 2 to
7oC, were observed in AVHRR satellite images during the week. An ash-
steam plume trending 50 km (~31 miles) to the south was visible in
the image at 0727 KDT on May 10 (1827 UTC on May 9). A faint
steam/aerosol plume extended from the volcano approximately 60 km
(~38 miles) on the southeast was visible at 1744 KDT (0444 UTC) on
May 13 .

The colour code at Karymsky is currently at YELLOW.


KAMCHATKA (Russia)
Volcano: SHEVELUCH
As of the 17th of May, the Kamchatkan Volcanic Eruptions Response
Team (KVERT) reported that unrest at the volcano continues. A lava
dome is growing in the active crater, and at any time, with little
warning, explosions could produce pyroclastic flows and ash plumes
that could rise as high as 7-10 km (23,000- 33,000 ft) above sea
level (ASL), as well as localized ash fall. During the week, seismic
activity continued to remain above background levels. Earthquakes of
Ml<=2.1 at depths of 0-6 km, as well as many other local shallow
seismic signals which possibly indicated weak gas-ash explosions and
avalanches, and episodes of weak spasmodic volcanic tremor were
registered. On May 11 and 13-15 a gas and steam plume rose 1000-1600
m (3300 - 5300 ft), and on May 10 and 16 the plume rose 300-500 m
(1000 - 1600 ft) above the dome. In the morning on May 12, the gas
plume along the rim of the dome rose 50 m and contained a small
amount of ash. In the afternoon on May 12 and May 13 the volcano was
quiet. At 0050 KDT on May 14 (1150 UTC May 13), incandescence at the
dome summit was observed from Klyuchi town.

On the afternoons of May 13, 14, and 15 the nearest seismic station
registered high-frequency seismic signals for 14, 11, and 7 hours,
respectively. KVERT assumes this signal was caused by intense snow
thawing and the water running in the vicinity of seismic station.
This signal prevented the accurate observation of the volcanic
seismicity.

Thermal anomalies of 2-6 pixels in size with the maximum band 3
temperature of 24 to sensor saturation ~50oC within a background -4
to 5oC, were observed in two AVHRR satellite images during the week.
No ash was detected in any image.

The official alert level colour is currently at YELLOW.


ECUADOR
Volcano: TUNGURAHUA
As of the 17th of May, the Instituto Geofisico (IG), has reported
that a total of 14 events of long period and 8 signals of tremor
associated with emissions of steam, gas has been entered and ash,
being the most important by their duration the one of 1745 (local
time) until 2230 (local time) yesterday and the one of 11h0 (local
time) today that is continuous. Because the cloudiness in the high
part of the volcano stys, observations have not been made. "Roars"
have not reported themselves. The degassing process observed in
previous weeks continuous, without registering explosive events
during the last hours. It is necessary that the population stays
alert to the messages that emit means authorized, by the possible
generation of flows of mud or changes in the behaviour of the
volcano.

The official colour of the volcanic alarm light remains on YELLOW.


MEXICO
Volcano: POPOCATEPETL
As of 1100 (1600 GMT), the 17th of May, and after having been
translated from Spanish, CENAPRED has reported that in the last 24
hours, Popocatepetl volcano showed similar leves of activity compared
to yesterday. There were recorded 82 small to moderate exhalations,
accompanied mainly by steam, gas and sometimes small amounts of ash.
The other monitored parameters remain without important changes.
Since early in the morning and at the moment of this report we have
no visibility due to intense clouds around the volcano, therefore all
current images will remain.

The activity reported in the last days is probably related with the
movement of magma, in small amount, towards the surface, and with
minor changes in the lava dome in the crater. The increment of
activity registered at the end of the last April, is related to the
formation of the small dome shown in the picture. This type of
condition has been observed in the past and does not imply a change
in the following forseen scenarios: glowing observed during the
night, isolated minor explosions with emission of incandescent
fragments at short distance from the crater or low-volume ash
emissions.

The traffic light of volcanic alert is maintained yellow-2. It is
recommended not to approach the volcano to less than 12 km from the
crater, although the road between Santiago Xalitzintla (Puebla) and
San Pedro Nexapa (Mexico State), including Paso de Cortés, is open
for controlled circulation.

The colour of the volcanic alarm light remains on YELLOW.


HAWAII
Volcano: KILAUEA
As of the 17th of May, it has been reported to SWVRC direct from the
Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), that strong glow comes from the
Mother's Day flow this morning at 0448, and thick wood smoke is
drifting across the Chain of Craters Road on Holei Pali. Pilots
yesterday reported skylights in the upstream part of the tubed-over
Mother's Day flow, with a vigorous river visible within. Ground
observations yesterday at noon found the front of the `a`a in the
flow to be at the 2270-foot elevation, along the edge of the forest
on the west side of the Episode 50-53 flow field. The `a`a may have
been inactive, but a slowly moving pahoehoe flow reached another 200
m downslope. This morning's bright and steady glow and smoke indicate
continued movement through the forest. The flow is roughly 3 km long.

Glow this morning also indicates continued activity at the front of
the HALP flow just above Royal Gardens. Several spots of glow farther
up the flow show that not all of the upstream lava is confined to a
tube. The Boundary flow still moves down Pulama pali and spreads
across the coastal flat. This morning several mostly crusted streams
decorated the pali. Faint glow comes from the central part of the
rootless shield complex. The crater of Pu`u` O`o remains dark this
morning, even in good visibility.

The level of volcanic tremor and long-period earthquakes is still
moderate at Kilauea's summit, and tremor at Pu`u `O`o continues at a
moderate level. Seveal short bursts of activity are evident at the
summit in the past few hours. Tiltmeters on the volcano are
indicating nothing unusual, with Pu`u `O`o slowly inflating.

The Current Colour Code for Kilauea is ORANGE.

After slumbering in a deep sleep for thousands of years, a volcano in Oregon is showing definite signs of waking up. Oregon Bulge Hints at Volcano's Reawakening

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/astronomy/science_briefs-1.html 

13 May 2002: A 4-inch bulge spotted by satellite along with other data indicate that an ancient, dormant volcano in Oregon's Cascade Range may be awakening after thousands of sleepy years, according to research that will be presented Wednesday at a meeting of the Geological Society of America. Though no signs point to an imminent eruption of the South Sister volcano, near Bend, geoscientists are watching the mountain more closely. The swelling of the ground proceeds at about 1 inch per year, and researchers have measured the chemistry of the surrounding air and nearby springs, finding small amounts of gas from molten rock. Lava may be welling up from below, based on new satellite-based computer models that will be presented at the meeting. [See previous feature story on the bulge and "Super Volcanoes"]

Super Volcanoes: Satellites Eye Deadly Hot Spots

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/planetearth/volcano_monitor_0108 07-1.html  

In case the URL wraps around and is not complete, you may need to copy or cut the URL, and then paste it into your browsers open window in order to go to the site.

Volcano Eruption Update- Updated as of May 16, 2002

GUATEMALA     Volcano: SANTA MARIA

As of the 16th of May, and based on information from INSIVUMEH, the Washington VAAC reported that small amounts of ash fell near Santa Maria's summit on 13 May. This constitutes a re-eruption of this volcano for year 2002. An ash cloud was visible on satellite imagery drifting SW during the morning and more westerly later in the day.

The densest ash was located very close to the summit, with light ash extending SW. Symmetrical, forest-covered Santa María volcano is one of a chain of large stratovolcanoes that rises dramatically above the Pacific coastal plain of Guatemala. The stratovolcano has a sharp-topped, conical profile that is cut on the SW flank by a large, 1-km-wide crater, which formed during a catastrophic eruption in 1902 and extends from just below the summit to the lower flank. The renowned plinian eruption of 1902 followed a long repose period and devastated much of SW Guatemala. The large dacitic Santiaguito lava-dome complex has been growing at the base of the 1902 crater since 1922. Compound dome growth at Santiaguito has occurred episodically from four westward-younging vents, accompanied by almost continuous minor explosions and periodic lava extrusion, larger explosions, pyroclastic flows, and lahars.

The Santa Maria volcano is currently at the YELLOW alert level. The Santa Maria volcano in Guatemala was previously and correctly forecasted by ERUPTION Pro 10.3 to erupt in 2002 with >62.03% probability.

ECUADOR   Volcano: TUNGURAHUA

As of the 16th of May, the Instituto Geofisico (IG), has reported that a total of 40 events of long period and 75 signals of tremor associated with emissions of steam, gas has been entered and ash. At night of yesterday, Personnel of the Institute reported to listen to roars of moderate intensity. During the morning and of today observations due to the high present cloudiness have late not been made in the high part of the volcano. Being possible single at certain moments for observing steam emissions, without establishing height nor direction of movement. The degassing process observed in previous weeks continuous, without registering explosive events during the last hours. It is necessary that the population stays alert to the messages that emit means authorized, by the possible generation of flows of mud or changes in the behaviour of the volcano.

The official colour of the volcanic alarm light remains on YELLOW. The Tungurahua volcano in Ecuador was correctly forecasted by ERUPTION Pro 10.3 to erupt in 2002 with >58.03% probability.

 MEXICO   Volcano: POPOCATEPETL

As of 1100 (1600 GMT), the 16th of May, and after having been translated from Spanish, CENAPRED has reported that Popocatépetl emitted small clouds of steam, gas, and generally minor amounts of ash. In addition, episodes of harmonic tremor were recorded. A small explosion on 12 May at 0609 hurled incandescent pyroclasts less than 500 m down the volcano's N flank. Aerial photography taken on 29 April by the Department of Federal Roads and the Ministry of Communication and Transportation revealed a 170-m-diameter lava dome growing in the crater. According to CENAPRED, recent volcanic and seismic activity at Popocatépetl has been related to the growth of this lava dome. Since early in the morning and at the moment of this report we have no visibility due to intense clouds around the volcano, therefore all current images will remain.

The activity reported in the last days is probably related with the movement of magma, in small amount, towards the surface, and with minor changes in the lava dome in the crater. The increment of activity registered at the end of the last April, is related to the formation of the small dome shown in the picture. This type of condition has been observed in the past and does not imply a change in the following forseen scenarios: glowing observed during the night, isolated minor explosions with emission of incandescent fragments at short distance from the crater or low-volume ash emissions.

The traffic light of volcanic alert is maintained yellow-2. It is recommended not to approach the volcano to less than 12 km from the crater, although the road between Santiago Xalitzintla (Puebla) and San Pedro Nexapa (Mexico State), including Paso de Cortés, is open for controlled circulation.

The colour of the volcanic alarm light remains on YELLOW. The Popocatepetl volcano in Mexico was forecasted by ERUPTION Pro 10.3 to erupt in 2002 with >87.27% probability.

HAWAII   Volcano: KILAUEA

As of the 16th of May, it has been reported to SWVRC direct from the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), that the boundary flow on Pulama pali is mostly crusted over this morning at 0443, but the Mother's Day flow appears to have a lot of lava exposed at the surface. Bright glow defines its course from the vent southwest of PU`u` O`o down to an elevation of about 2200 feet, a distance of more than 3 km. The HALP flow is likewise quite active. Helicopter reports yesterday placed it several hundred meters upslope from the upper end of Royal Gardens, in a large kipuka that extends all the way to the base of the subdivision. This morning, bright, flaring glow comes from that general area, probably within 200-300 m of the subdivision. The crater of Pu`u` O`o remains dark this morning, even in good visibility.

The level of volcanic tremor and long-period earthquakes is still moderate at Kilauea's summit, and tremor at Pu`u `O`o is likewise at a moderate level. Both areas experienced an upturn in activity corresponding to the Mother's Day deflation and new lava flow. Tiltmeters on the volcano are indicating nothing unusual. The Current Colour Code for Kilauea is ORANGE .

The volcano Kilauea in Hawaii was successfully forecasted by SWVRC's programme ERUPTION Pro 10.3 to erupt in 2002 with 100% probability.

ITALY    Volcano: STROMBOLI

As of the 16th of May, the Instituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Sezione di Catania has reported that Stromboli's activity was at a low level in spring 2002. Both, the SW and NE crater erupted around 4 times per hour, with relatively little ash being emitted. Eruptions were strongly directed away from Pizzo, i.e. towards Sciara del Fuoco. This made the eruptions appear relatively large as seen from below, like from the tourist boats, but not very impressive from Pizzo itself. The new hole between SW and NE craters, recently created during an unusually strong explosion, often showed prominent glow, and for most of the time produced low frequency noises and light permanent spattering.

The Current Colour Code for Stromboli is ORANGE. The volcano Stromboli in Italy was successfully forecasted by SWVRC's programme ERUPTION Pro 10.3 to erupt in 2002 with 100% probability.

Source:    http://www.swvrc.org/cerupt.htm 

2002 News Releases http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/releases/2002/release_2002_85.html

Dormant Volcanoes Shows Signs of Life   April 12, 2002

Previously dormant volcanoes in two widely separated areas of the Pacific "ring of fire" are showing signs of life, as documented by new images taken by the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (Aster) on NASA's Terra satellite. The images are available at:

Geologists had previously considered Chiliques, a simple 5,778-meter (18,957-foot) stratovolcano with a 500-meter (1,640-foot)-diameter circular summit crater in northern Chile, to be dormant. However, a January 6, 2002 nighttime thermal infrared image from Aster found a hot spot in the summit crater, as well as several others along the upper flanks of the volcano's edifice, indicating new volcanic activity. Examination of an earlier nighttime thermal infrared image from May 24, 2000 showed no such hot spots.

Stratovolcanoes such as Chiliques account for approximately 60 percent of Earth's volcanoes. They are marked by eruptions of cooler, stickier lavas such as andesite, dacite and rhyolite. Because these lavas tend to plug up volcanic plumbing, gas pressures can more easily build up to high levels, often resulting in explosive eruptions. They are typically made up of about half lava and half loose or fragmented rock ejected from the volcano, and are therefore also commonly known as composite volcanoes. Mount Saint Helens in Washington and Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines are examples of stratovolcanoes.

The daytime image of Chiliques was acquired on November 19, 2000 and was created by displaying Aster bands 1, 2 and 3 in blue, green and red. The nighttime image is a color-coded display of a single thermal infrared band. The hottest areas are white, and colder areas are darker shades of red. Both images cover an area of 7.5 by 7.5 kilometers (4.7 by 4.7 miles), and are centered at 23.6 degrees south latitude, 67.6 degrees west longitude.

This information was gleaned about the Chiliques Volcano from the Volcano Live, Breaking Volcano Eruption News, dated April 15, 2002. 
"There has been no known eruption of Chiliques volcano in the past 10,000 years." More on the Chiliques Volcano: http://www.volcanolive.com/chiliques.html 

 A new volcano is supposedly forming off of Australia. The formation of new volcanos is yet another sign spoken of often in prophecy and elsewhere. It indicates that things are seriously starting to change at a more rapid pace, and these are some of the signs of the times we need to be watching out for.

Australian Volcanoes Thursday 11th April 2002 Scientists believe a new Australian volcano is in the making after the apparent awakening of a volcanic hot spot off the Victorian coast. Geologists suspect an earthquake 50 kilometres from King Island in February signalled the stirring of the volcano breeding ground, a region in the Earth's crust where the planet expels some of its massive internal heat. There are more than 100 hot spots worldwide.

Australia's hot spot is several hundred kilometres wide and lies under the Bass Strait and parts of Victoria and Tasmania. The hotspot could spawn a volcano within 100 years. (SMH) Volcanoes of Australia  http://www.volcanolive.com/australia.html 

ECUADOR - Tungurahua volcano

April 24, 2002

As of the 23rd of April, The Instituto Geofisico (IG) has reported that the activity is continuing. The seismic activity was characterized by permanent and variable tremor amplitude and 2 VT events. Due to the poor meteorologial conditions (very cloudy above the volcano) no more direct observation were possible.

 MEXICO - Popocatepetl volcano   April 24, 2002

As of 1100 (1700 GMT), the 23rd of April, CENAPRED has reported that in the last 24 hours the activity of Popocatepetl volcano continued with a slight increase in its seismic activity, with respect to the previous days. 39 exhalations of loss to moderate intensity were registered, accompanied mainly by steam by water and gas. Also 2 hours of tremor of low amplitude and two microearthquakes volcano- tectonic of magnitudes 2.7 and 2.5 at 0633 and 0637 of today were registered and located more than 3.3 km under the crater. The other parameters of monitored stay without important changes. From today in the morning and to the moment of this report, it has been possible to observe few emissions in the crater of the volcano. The presence of a lava dome in the crater, confirmed during a flight on March 7th, implies the possibility that within the next days or weeks low level explosive activity could be observed. The traffic light of volcanic alert is maintained yellow-2. It is recommended not to approach the volcano to less than 12 km from the crater, although the road between Santiago Xalitzintla (Puebla) and San Pedro Nexapa (Mexico State), including Paso de Cortés, is open for controlled circulation. The colour of the volcanic alarm light remains on YELLOW. . Information  from CENAPRED

MEXICO - Colima volcano   April 20, 2002

As of the 19th of April, the Universidad de Colima has reported that as of 19 April, the eruption at the Colima volcano continues, also with ash and gas emission towards the East. Apparently the new lava dome inside the summit crater has now a volume of around 1.5 million cubic meters. Previous update of the 11th of April, the Universidad de Colima was reported that as of 6 April volcanism continued at Colima and more small explosion earthquakes were recorded than during the previous week. Incandescent lava avalanches, generated from the fronts of block-lava flows, continued to travel 2-3 km down Colima's S, SW, and W flanks, and sporadically down the E flank. In addition, block-lava flows extended 550 m down the SW flank and 2 km down the W flank

INDONESIA Volcanoes activity VSI Reports : Report for the month of April 2002

G. Merapi (Java) - As of the of the 2nd of April, the Volcanology Society of Indonesia (VSI) has reported that past week, solfatara emission was ongoing, have white thin-thick colour, low pressure, and the maximum height was 420 m above Merapi's summit. Glowing lava avalanche was also continuing, dominantly toward to the upstream of Senowo, Sat and Lamat rivers, and partly to Bebeng river. The maximum distance was approximated about 2.5 km. Merapi seismicity was still high and seismograph again recorded low frequency earthquake within this past week. There was no pyroclastic flow which was occurred during the reporting time. Complete data of seismicity are listed as follow: 609 events of avalanche, 1 event of low frequency (LF) and 2 events of tectonic earthquake. SO2 gas emission using COSPEC measurement are: average value 146 ton/day, range of measurement 103- 206 ton/day and speed of emission 3.4 m/sec. The Merapi volcano is currently at the ALERT LEVEL 2 alert level. Talang (Sumatra) - As of the 23rd of April, the Volcanological Society of Indonesia (VSI) has reported that Talang activitiy was still dominated with small explosion earthquakes but seems decrease compare to last data. Volcano could be observed clearly, white thin plume was observed with the heighth of about 25-150 m above the crater and tend to east. Temperature of hotspring is about 43-63°C, decrease relatively than previous data. Records of seismicity within this week are: 1 event of deep volcanic (VA), 23 events of small explosion and 12 events of tectonic earthquake. The colour code at Talang is currently at ALERT LEVEL 2 G. Karangetang (Siau Island)- As of the 23rd of April, the Volcanology Society of Indonesia (VSI) has reported that there was an increasing in Karangetang activity which is indicated with significant number of shallow volcanic earthquake within this week.

Main crater is continuing to ejecting plume which has white thick colour and medium pressure and the height was about 400 m above crater rim. Observer also noticed 25 m of red coloured reflection at night view. Detail seismicity during the reporting time are: 17 events of deep volcanic (VA), 64 events of shallow volcanic (VB), 82 events of tectonic earthquake. The Karangetang volcano is currently at the ALERT LEVEL 2 alert level.

G. Lokong Empung (North Sulawesi) - As of the 23rd of April, the Volcanology Society of Indonesia (VSI) has reported that Lokon volcanic activity pointed with an eruption activity which occurred on 10 April 2002, at 23.02 Wita (local time) and on 12 April 2002, at 18.16 Wita (local time). That explosion followed with glowing ejecta material which felt down around the crater. Ash explosion was in white-grey thick color, rose 1000 m height above crater rim. On 13 and 14 April occurred continously of gas/ash explosions. Explosion occurred 8 times on 13 April, while on 14 April was 5 times. Ash explosion towered 50-75 m height above crater rim. Tremor earthquake begin recorded on 11 April 2002 with amplitude of 0.5-2 mm, this is lasting now with amplitude of 4-48 mm. Complete seismicity data are: 90 events of deep volcanic (VA), 184 events of shallow volcanic (VB), and 10 events of tectonic earthquake. Based on the recent activity,

Lokon is now raised to level 3 from level 2 before, since 12 April 2002 at 19.00 Wita. The Lokon Empung volcano is currently at the ALERT LEVEL 3 alert level.

Anak Krakatau ( Sunda Strait) - As of the 23rd of April, the Volcanological Survey of Indonesia (VSI) has reported that the seismograph is still not working since 13 September 2001 which caused by power supply problem. The Krakatau volcano is currently at Alert

Level 2. Ijen volcano - Java- As of the 23rd of April, the Volcanological Society of Indonesia (VSI) has reported that Ijen lake activity within this week was still higher than normal active, observer reported that plume which appeared from that crater has white thin- medium colour and towered 50 m above the summit. During the reporting time, seismograph recorded continuous of tremor earthquakes which have amplitude of about 0.5-2 mm and 2 events of shallow volcanic (VB) earthquake. The colour code at Ijen is currently at ALERT LEVEL 2

Kerinci volcano - ( Sumatera) - As of the of the 23rd of April, the Volcanology Society of Indonesia (VSI) has reported that based on seismicity, Kerinci activity was still dominated with small explosion earthquakes, while volcanic earthquake seems decrease compare to the week before. Observer reported that plume was in white thick darkish colour, with medium-high pressure and reach 50-300 m height above the summit, drifted to eastward. List of seismicity records are: 1 event of deep volcanic (VA), 1 event of shallow volcanic (VB), 262 events of small explosion and 4 events of tectonic earthquake. The Kerinci volcano is currently at the ALERT LEVEL 2 alert level. . Semeru volcano (Java) - As of the 23rd of April, the Volcanology Society of Indonesia (VSI) has reported that an observer reported that Semeru activities are still higher than normal activity. This is represented with appearance of volcanic earthquakes, which was increased in explosion type, on the other hand, decrease in shallow volcanic type. The seismograph also recorded tremor earthquake which had an amplitude of 0.2 mm. Detail of seismicity shown below: 9 events deep volcanic (VA), 509 events of explosion, 141 events of avalanche, 1 event of tremor, 18 events of far tectonic and 3 events of local tectonic earthquake. .
Source:  http://www.sveurop.org/gb/news/news.htm

http://www.sveurop.org/gb/news/news.htm 

MEXICO - Popocatepetl volcano  April 20, 2002  As of 1100 (1700 GMT), the 19th of April, and after having been translated from Spanish, CENAPRED has reported that in the last 24 hours, Popocatepetl volcano showed a steady level of activity. There were 10 small exhalations accompanied by steam and gas. A tectonic earthquake occurred with magnitude 2.3, depth 4.6, located 2.5 km from the crater in the southeastern sector. The other monitored parameters remain without important changes. At the moment of this report a thin steam column is observed with an average altitude of 200 m above the crater. The presence of a lava dome in the crater, confirmed during a flight on March 7th, implies the possibility that within the next days or weeks low level explosive activity could be observed. The traffic light of volcanic alert is maintained yellow-2. It is recommended not to approach the volcano to less than 12 km from the crater, although the road between Santiago Xalitzintla (Puebla) and San Pedro Nexapa (Mexico State), including Paso de Cortés, is open for controlled circulation. The colour of the volcanic alarm light remains on YELLOW. . Information from CENAPRED

MEXICO - Colima volcano  April 20, 2002  As of the 19th of April, the Universidad de Colima has reported that as of 19 April, the eruption at the Colima volcano continues, also with ash and gas emission towards the East. Apparently the new lava dome inside the summit crater has now a volume of around 1.5 million cubic meters. Previous update of the 11th of April, the Universidad de Colima was reported that as of 6 April volcanism continued at Colima and more small explosion earthquakes were recorded than during the previous week. Incandescent lava avalanches, generated from the fronts of block-lava flows, continued to travel 2-3 km down Colima's S, SW, and W flanks, and sporadically down the E flank. In addition, block-lava flows extended 550 m down the SW flank and 2 km down the W flank

ITALY - Etna volcano ( Sicily) April 19, 2002 18 April 2002 update. A dense plume of brownish-gray ash is continuosly drifting from Etna's summit across the eastern sky of Catania as the Bocca Nuova contines to emit pulverized rock from its southeastern vent. This activity was observed by a local mountain guide on 18 April, who also noted that the northwestern vent of the same crater was filled with vapor and no eruptive activity was visible. No noises were audible due to a gale-force wind. The Voragine emitted a dense, but ash-free gas plume, while dense white vapor rose from the Northeast Crater. Earthquakes have in recent days not only affected the southeastern side of Etna, but a distinct local seismicity has also been observed by the owners of isolated mountain huts on the northeastern flank. The northeastern flank earthquakes occurred at clearly different times than those felt in the Zafferana area as on 13 April. The owner of the "Ragabo" mountain hut which lies near Piano Pernicana, an area that is cut by a conspicuous east- west trending strike-slip fault, reports that earthquakes were felt daily between 12 and 15 April. The movement during each of the tremors was vertical and accompanied by rumbling noises or "bangs". No such earthquakes had affected the area prior to 12 April. The Pernicana fault was the source of a shallow local earthquake in December 1985 that destroyed the Hotel "Le Betulle" at Piano Provenzana a few kilometers further southwest, killing one person. "Le Betulle", rebuilt after the 1985 event, is the starting point for guided excursions on the northern flank of Etna.  Informations (From B.Behncke website

RUSSIA - Sheveluch volcano ( Kamchatka) April 20, 2002 As of 19 th of April, unrest at the volcano continues. A lava dome is growing in the active crater and at any time with little warning, explosions could produce pyroclastic flows and ash plumes that could rise as high as 7-10 km (23,000- 33,000 ft) above sea level (ASL), as well as localized ash fall. During the week, seismic activity continued to remain above background levels. Earthquakes of Ml<=2.3 at depths of 0-5 km, as well as many other local shallow seismic signals which possibly indicated weak gas-ash explosions and avalanches, and episodes of weak spasmodic volcanic tremor were registered. In the beginning and in the end of the week, clouds obscured the volcano. In the morning on April 15, a weak gas and steam plume was observed above the dome. A short-lived explosive eruption which sent an ash-gas plume to heights of 1000 m above the dome (~3500 m or ~11,500 ft ASL) was observed from Klyuchi town at 19:06 KDT on April 15. In the evening on April 15, a gas and steam plume rose 500 m, and on April 16 - 1000-1500 m above the dome. At 22:59 KDT on April 16, a 3-minute-long seismic event possibly indicated a weak ash-gas explosion occurred, and at the same time the bright incandescence at the top of the dome was observed for 15 minutes. On April 17, a gas and steam plume rose 700 m above the dome. Thermal anomalies continued to be visible in AVHRR satellite images. The most intense thermal anomalies, with 4 pixels at the maximum band 3 temperature near sensor saturation (~49 dg C) in a background of -2 dg C, were observed on April 13 and 17. No ash was detected in any image. The Current alert level colour is YELLOW. Information from: KVERT.

RUSSIA - Karymsky volcano (Kamchatka) April 20, 2002 As of the 19th of April, the Kamchatkan Volcanic Eruptions Response Team (KVERT) reported that seismic activity was above background levels. The local shallow seismic events are occurring at the former rate of about 10 events per hour. The character of the seismicity indicated that weak ash-gas explosions, gas blow-outs and debris avalanches possibly occurred. According to 87988 Yak-40 pilot's report, at 1115 KDT on April 15 (2215 UTC on April 14), they observed an ash explosion to a height of 3000 m above the volcano (~4,500 m or ~15,800 ft ASL). For the past week, thermal anomalies of 2-5 pixels in size continued to be visible in AVHRR satellite images. The last time a thermal anomaly of 2 pixels in size with the maximum band 3 temperature 29oC within a background near -3oC was observed in the AVHRR satellite images at 1807 KDT (0507 UTC) on April 17. A faint aerosol/steam plume trending to the southeast was also visible in this image. No ash was detected in an image. The colour code at Karymsky is currently at YELLOW. . - KVERT

Volcanic Superplumes Friday 19th April 2002
Two superplumes of molten rock appear to be powering through the boundary between the Earth's upper and lower mantle, perhaps feeding volcanoes and affecting movement of the planet's crust. New evidence of the superplumes — located beneath the south central Pacific Ocean and southern Africa — comes from studies of seismic waves. Regions above the superplumes tend to bulge upward.

Smaller regions of magma rising to the Earth's crust power volcanoes and other hot spots.  But the superplumes come from far deeper, crossing the boundary between the upper and lower mantle about 400 miles deep, an area that had been thought by some scientists to impede the flow of material.

Emphasis so far has been on the cold down-moving subducted plates and their critical role in mantle dynamics but the superplumes may play an important role as well.

The plateaus of southern and eastern Africa are about 1,600 feet higher than most old continental areas in the world. This is referred to as the ``African superswell.'' There are volcanoes in Africa and in the southern Atlantic Ocean that could be related to the superplume in the same way as Hawaii and other hotspot volcanoes in the southern Pacific may be related to the Pacific superswell. Source http://www.volcanolive.com/volcanolive.html 

With its 14 spectral bands from the visible to the thermal infrared wavelength region, and its high spatial resolution of 15 to 90 meters (about 50 to 300 feet), Aster will image Earth for the next six years to map and monitor the changing surface of our planet.

Aster is one of five Earth-observing instruments on Terra, and is its only high- resolution imaging sensor. Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry built the instrument. JPL is responsible for the American side of the joint U.S.-Japan science team that is validating and calibrating the instrument and data products.

Aster's broad spectral coverage and high spectral resolution will provide scientists in numerous disciplines with critical information for surface mapping, and monitoring dynamic conditions and temporal change. Example applications are: monitoring glacial advances and retreats; monitoring potentially active volcanoes; identifying crop stress; determining cloud morphology and physical properties; evaluating wetlands; monitoring thermal pollution; monitoring coral reef degradation; mapping soil and geology surface temperatures; and measuring surface heat balance.

More information on Aster is available at: http://asterweb.jpl.nasa.gov  

NASA's Earth Science Enterprise is a long-term research and technology program designed to examine Earth's land, oceans, atmosphere, ice and life as a total integrated system. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

As of the 12th of April, the Kamchatkan Volcanic Eruptions Response Team (KVERT) reported that unrest at the volcano continues. A lava dome is growing in the active crater and at any time with little warning, explosions could produce pyroclastic flows and ash plumes that could rise as high as 7-10 km (23,000- 33,000 ft) above sea level (ASL), as well as localized ash fall. During the week, seismic activity continued to remain above background levels. Earthquakes of Ml<=2.1 at depths of 0-9 km, as well as many other local shallow seismic signals which possibly indicated weak gas-ash explosions and avalanches, and episodes of weak spasmodic volcanic tremor were registered. Most of the week, clouds obscured the volcano. On April 6, a gas and steam plume rose 1000 m above the dome. On April 9-10, a gas and steam plume rose 300-800 m above the dome. A short-lived explosive eruption which sent an ash-gas plume to heights of 1000 m above the dome (~3500 m or ~11,500 ft ASL) was observed from Klyuchi town at 0900 KDT on April 10.

Thermal anomalies continued to be visible in AVHRR satellite images. The most intense thermal anomalies, with 1-2 pixels at the maximum band 3 temperature at saturation (~49oC) in a background of -5 to 3oC, were observed on April 9-10. No ash was detected in any image The official alert level colour has been reduced to YELLOW. Information from: KVERT

http://www.sveurop.org/gb/news/news.htm 

Warning from the Dead

Bill McGuire on the lessons learned a century after the volcanic carnage in the Caribbean

One hundred years ago this month, the worst volcanic catastrophe of the 20th century wrought carnage on the Caribbean island of Martinique. Wedged between the sparkling Caribbean sea and the towering Mont Pelée volcano, the town and port of Saint Pierre - the "Paris of the West Indies" - bathed in sunshine.

Just before 8am on May 8, 1902, the cathedral bells rang out, calling the faithful to the Ascension Day service. It was the last time they would be heard. Minutes later, the bustling community ceased to exist - transformed into hell incarnate by one of the most devastating volcanic blasts of the century. Grainy monochrome pictures of the aftermath reveal scenes of ruin rarely seen outside the post-apocalyptic images of the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

The terse message transmitted at 8.03am by the wireless operator on the telegraph cable ship Pouyer-Quertier anchored offshore - "St Pierre destroyed by Pelée eruption. Send all assistance" - does not begin to do justice to the scale of destruction. In barely two minutes, virtually every building had been flattened and around 29,000 inhabitants roasted alive or asphyxiated by burning gases.

Saint Pierre's nemesis was a volcanic phenomenon known to volcanologists as a pyroclastic flow, and to observers in the French Caribbean as a nuée ardente , or glowing avalanche. These hurricane blasts of super-heated volcanic gases, glowing ash and blocks as big as houses are the most terrifying of all volcanic hazards.

Pyroclastic flows, in which the magma is particularly sticky and gas rich, have taken more than 50,000 lives during the past 300 years. The same phenomenon was responsible for the obliteration of the Roman towns of Pompeii and Herculaneum during the AD79 eruption of Vesuvius. This is particularly ironic in the light of a statement issued by the local newspaper, Les Colonies, designed to calm the worried inhabitants of Saint Pierre. It read: "Mont Pelée is no more to be feared by St Pierre than Vesuvius is feared by Naples. Where could one be better off than Saint Pierre?" In retrospect the answer is clear - anywhere else on the planet.

The newspaper statement typifies the attitude of the island's establishment and highlights the paramount reason for the catastrophe - the poor response of the authorities to a crisis that had been escalating for months. Not only was the threat constantly played down, but the impression was given that it would be safer if inhabitants of outlying settlements moved into Saint Pierre. Consequently, at the time of the blast, the town's population had swelled more than 10%.

Inevitably, politics also played a part. Elections were imminent and the new governor, Louis Mouttet, was determined they should go ahead. Although supposedly apolitical, Mouttet was a covert supporter of the reactionary Progressive Party, which advocated traditional French colonial policy and the maintenance of the status quo. With the opposition Radical Party, supported by the negro and mulatto population, becoming stronger by the day, Governor Mouttet avoided any moves that would engender panic and cause the progressives to haemorrhage further support.

The press, also a supporter of the Progressive Party, followed suit, chastising those who drew attention to the growing threat from Pelée, and playing up the conclusion of the governor's commission of inquiry, which concluded "that the safety of Saint Pierre was absolutely assured".

As activity escalated and the crisis deepened, the locals became less convinced. Fear increased as rivers of boiling mud poured into outlying settlements and sugar mills, killing hundreds, and turned to terror following invasions of stinging ants and deadly snakes fleeing the volcano. Some tried to leave town, only to find their way barred by armed troops. With the election just days away, Governor Mouttet had resolved not to lose a single voter. So when Pelée could no longer contain herself, Saint Pierre was bursting at the seams with terrified inhabitants.

Are we any better prepared, 100 years on, to cope with a major volcanic eruption? We know a lot more about volcanic hazards and, in particular, the deadly pyroclastic flows that were the scourge of Saint Pierre, and we are better at forecasting volcanic eruptions. No volcano explodes without some warning sign - usually increased numbers of earth tremors or a swelling of the ground surface.

This increased knowledge was, however, of little help to the inhabitants of the Colombian town of Armero, 23,000 of whom died in the 1985 eruption of the Nevado del Ruiz volcano, the second worst volcanic catastrophe of the century. Despite warnings from scientists, and ignoring the fact that the town was built on deposits of volcanic debris, the authorities did nothing, committing the inhabitants to death by incarceration in a muddy tomb.

And this highlights the nub of the problem. We know much more about the science of volcanoes, but we have a way to go in learning how to communicate the threat to local people and the civil authorities. With only around 150 of the world's 3,000 active and potentially active volcanoes monitored, further disasters on a scale of Saint Pierre are inevitable.

Unless, that is, we can focus as much on the message as on the science. Volcanologists must become good communicators if they are to make their warnings heard above the voices of local politics and vested interest. With more and more people living in danger zones around the world's volcanoes, failure to do so will ensure that volcanic destruction in this century will dwarf that of the last.

· Bill McGuire is Benfield Greig Professor of Geophysical Hazards and director of the Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre at University College London. His new book, A Guide to the End of the World: Everything You Never Wanted to Know, is published by Oxford University Press, £11.99.

The Zeta's take on how the volcanism will affect us:

(NancyL) ZT: We have stated that the Earth will be under volcanic dust gloom for 25 years.
(NancyL) ZT: Obviously, this will depend upon region, proximity to burping volcanoes, being down or upwind of same, and elevation.
(NancyL) ZT: Our emissary, Nancy, has developed an animated graphic, shortly after ZetaTalk began, which is available from the Pole Shift TOPIC in the Info section.
(NancyL) ZT: This shows the Earth turned to its new geography, with major volcanic regions pouring gray dust into the atmosphere.
(NancyL) ZT: After a few turns of the globe, indicating time passing, this creates a gray cloud cover of sorts over the entire globe.
(NancyL) ZT: However, this is NOT entirely true, and we will explain the differences.
(NancyL) ZT: Volcanic gloom is ALWAYS heavier within a thousand miles down wind from the volcanoe.
(NancyL) ZT: Thus, if one if outside of the downwind corridor, one escapes this heavy fallout.
(NancyL) ZT: Volcanic gloom is ALWAYS heavier at lower elevations in such places, as the heavier particles fall back to Earth, after being air born by the force of heat rising or explosions, and high elevations some 500 miles downwind from a burping volcano might find they have less dust than a lower elevation 1,000 miles downwind.
(NancyL) ZT: The size of the volcanoe also matters, and whether it is under water of above ground.
(NancyL) ZT: As silly as this statement seems, this is something to consider when planning a survival location.
(NancyL) ZT: Remember that the sea level will RISE, our estimate some 675 feet above current levels.
(NancyL) ZT: If a volcanoe, such as those in Indonesia or the Philipines or Central America, goes under water during this time, the ash will be carried by water, not air.
(NancyL) ZT: Also, some volcanoes ooze, others belch, and the amount of ash differs.
(NancyL) ZT: Thus, to get back to the question, some areas will find themself groping through the dusk for 40 years, as Moses reported where he wandered just east of the volcanoes in the Mediterranean, and other locations will find the gloom like overcast days, the sun rarely shinning through, but occasional sunlight beaming through like a promise.
(NancyL) ZT: In those areas, which can be PLOTTED by careful analysis of the new geography and factors to be considered, survivors will find vegetation struggling through, but crops will still be pathetic to nonexistent.
(NancyL) ZT: These areas will find after 15 years, that the gloomy days are lightening up, and think this a return to normalcy, in their joy.

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